School Moneyby Schools in Reach
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Guide for everyone

Falling pupil numbers and school budgets

Why fewer pupils means a tighter budget even for a well-run school, what schools can do, and questions to ask.

What falling numbers do to a budget

Schools are mostly funded per pupil, so fewer pupils means less money. Costs do not fall in step: a class with a few fewer pupils still needs a teacher. Primary schools in England have already lost about 100,000 pupils (3%) between 2019–20 and 2024–25, and are expected to lose over 300,000 more (about 8%) by 2030–31. Secondary numbers are expected to start falling from about 2026–27. The IFS points out that money is only saved if schools actually reduce what they spend, such as staff or the number of schools. That is why a well-run school with falling numbers can still find its budget under pressure. (IFS 2026 report, pp. 19, 64)

Why costs do not fall in step

Imagine a primary school class that drops from 30 pupils to 24. The school loses the funding for 6 pupils, but the class still needs a teacher, a classroom that is heated and lit, and the same building costs. When this happens across several year groups, the gap between income and costs grows, even though nobody has done anything wrong.

What schools and councils do

  • Schools may merge classes, share staff with another school, or let out spare space.
  • Councils may look again at the number of school places across an area. The IFS notes that money is only saved when schools reduce staff or the number of schools falls.
  • In London, rapid falls in primary pupil numbers over the last 10 years have come with fewer teachers but not much change in the number of schools (IFS 2026 report, p. 21).

Questions to ask

  • How many pupils does the school expect in each year group over the next three years?
  • Is the school planning to merge classes, share staff or work more closely with another school?
  • Has the council talked about reducing places, merging or closing schools in this area?
  • Could spare space be let out or shared to bring in income?

On School Money

Each school page shows pupil numbers for every year, so you can see the trend beside the money. The budget check lets you try a forecast with lower income, and the guide for governors covers recovery plans if a deficit follows.

Sources

Last reviewed .